Beating the Business Cycle

Beating the Business Cycle

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How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you cana€™t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRIa€™s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the a€œsecret weapona€ of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levelsa€“managers, small business owners, and individualsa€“can see into the economya€™s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right timesa€“even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.Structural changes can alter the size of the cycle and even shift the timing of the turning point a little. ... stock prices often have many crying aquot;recessionaquot; even when other indicators are healthy, as we saw after the stock market crash of 1987 . As the well-known economist Paul Samuelson once quipped, the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions a€” hardly a reliable indicator on its own.

Title:Beating the Business Cycle
Author:Lakshman Achuthan, Anirvan Banerji
Publisher:Crown Business - 2004-05-18


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