EVERYONE'S GUIDE - FORECAST a SOLUTION introduces new, easy-to-use statistical methods so that the reader can answer the questions: How long will nuclear peace tend to continue? And, what can be done to extend it further? Dietrich Fischer, a past MacArthur Fellow at Princeton, was emphatic: qThis is an original a highly readable contribution to the most important issue facing humanity today - surviving the nuclear threat. Jeanes combines lucid common sense with mathematical rigor in this landmark work. Anyone with an interest in having a future should read this work.q Similarly, another distinguished scholar a author in the field declared, qIt was more than interesting: it was completely fascinating.q The general literate reader can assess when a nuclear use (small or otherwise) would tend to occur at probabilities from 1% to 99.9%, a what precisely can be done to forestall such use. Jeanes debunks deterrence theory, illustrates consequences of proliferation, a provides a unified explanation for warfare, conventional a nuclear. A comprehensive work - ethical, political, historical, analytical. 100+ Graphs a Tables, 1, 500+ footnotes. TOLL-FREE, 24 hours-a-day, credit card line (800) 448-3330; Publisher: (800) 446-0467.For example, in the early 1980s with all computer chips in a personal computer being 99% reliable for one year of use, only 61% [0.99 50] of computers with 50 chips would be reliable (i.e., chips work as designed) for one year.135 Though it anbsp;...

Title | : | Forecast and Solution |

Author | : | Ike Jeanes |

Publisher | : | Ike Jeanes - 1996 |

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