This economic and fiscal outlook sets out the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for the period to 2016-17. The economy has grown less strongly than forecast in March primarily because higher-than-expected inflation has squeezed household incomes and consumer spending. The eurozone crisis has impacted on business and consumer confidence. Consequently the OBR has revised it growth forecasts downwards. It expects the underlying momentum of the economy to pick up through 2012 but with the headline measure of GDP broadly flat until the second half. The central forecast is now for 0.7 per cent growth in GDP in 20102, 2.1 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total Ap127 this year (8.4 per cent of GDP), but the downward revision of growth forecasts means the deficit will shrink less quickly over the next five years, with a forecast Ap53 billion PSNB (2.9 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16. Unemployment is expected to rise further to 8.7 per cent in 2012 before falling back to 6.2 per cent by 2016. The OBR estimates that the Government has a roughly 60 per cent of meeting its mandate to balance the structural or cyclically-adjusted current budget by 2016-17. The central economic and fiscal forecasts assume that the euro area finds a way through its current crisis, but a more disorderly outcome is clearly a significant risk.The Autumn Statement announced that public sector pay awards will be set at an average of 1 per cent for the two years after the current freeze comes to an end. ... adjusted in line with this policy, with the exception of the NHS and schools budgets, where the money saved will be recycled. ... Estimated transfer payments related to the Universal Credit have been excluded from RDEL for the purposes ofanbsp;...
|Title||:||Office for Budget Responsibility|
|Author||:||Office for Budget Responsibility|
|Publisher||:||The Stationery Office - 2011-11-29|