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Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeinga€™s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential electionsa€”prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds. Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizationsa€”GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIAa€”has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done. In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can: a€c draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee a€c tap the a€œintellectual bandwidtha€ of retired employees a€c replace surveys a€c substitute for endless meetings By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks theya€™ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the marketa€”all to the benefit of their bottom line.... 134 anonymity, 70a€“71, 115, 148 Apple iPad, 70 Arafat, Yasser, 146 Ariel Investments, 170 Armstrong, Scott, 174a€“175 ARPNET, 144 Arrow ... 78 assassination markets, 153 ATG (Art Technology Group), 78 Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL), 162a€“163 audits, 126a€“127 Authers, ... Bernanke, Ben, 167 Bernoulli, Jakob, 72 Berra, Yogi, 18, 179 Index Best Buy, 14a€“15, 97a€“108, 208 bias at, 104a€“105 Blue Index.

Author:Donald N. Thompson
Publisher:Harvard Business Press - 2012


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