Risk Intelligence

Risk Intelligence

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There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ and most psychologists fail to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people such as weather-forecasters, professional gamblers and hedge-fund managers. This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers - seem unable to navigate doubt and uncertainty. Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Dylan Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives.Nevertheless, peoplewhoread IPCCreports interpretthe phrasesto mean a wide varietyofpossible values.Research published in 2009in PsychologicalScience, apeerreviewed scientificjournal, showedthatit was even possible forthe label ... Inone experiment, an intelligence analyst wasasked tosubstitute numerical probability estimatesfortheverbal qualifiers in oneofhis own earlier articles. ... The credit ratings indicate the agenciesa#39; estimates ofthechance that the debtor will default.

Title:Risk Intelligence
Author:Dylan Evans
Publisher:Atlantic Books Ltd - 2012-07-01


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