Subsonic versus Supersonic Business Jets - Full Concept Comparison considering Technical, Environmental and Economic Aspects

Subsonic versus Supersonic Business Jets - Full Concept Comparison considering Technical, Environmental and Economic Aspects

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Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: On the 26th of August 2010 the new ultra-large-cabin ultra-long-range Gulfstream G650 business jet reached Mach 0.995 during its flight test campaign (1). This is almost the speed of sound (Mach 1) and inspires one to say, why not fly faster than the speed of sound! Reduce travelling time in the commercial business aviation segment. This is, however not a completely new vision. Many companies and research facilities have already spent a lot of time and investment in studies to investigate the feasibility of supersonic flight. Entry Into Service (EIS) for the new Gulfstream G650 is scheduled for 2012. In the following the main performance parameter of the G650 aircraft will be summarised. The parameters range, cruise speed, MTOW, etc. have been selected and serve as a basis to allow an appropriate comparison between the G650 as the latest high end Subsonic Business Jet and potential in future Supersonic Business Jets (SSBJ) within this subject Master Thesis. With the impressive maximum range of nearly 13, 000 km the G650 can connect Dubai with New York or London with Buenos Aires within almost 14 hours. Maximum Range @ Normal Cruise Speed: 7, 000 nm/12, 964 km. Normal Cruise Speed Mach: 0.85/904 km/h. Mmo (Maximum Operating Mach Number): Mach 0.925. Maximum Cruise Altitude: 51, 000 ft/15, 545 m. Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW): 99, 600 lb/45, 178 kg. Maximum Fuel Weight: 44, 200 lb/20, 049 kg. Passengers: 11 18. Price: appr. 60-70 million USD. Gulfstream business rival Bombardier Aerospace also announced in October 2010 two new high end models, the Global 7000 and 8000 with a maximum range of 7, 300 nm (13, 520 km) and 7, 900 nm (14, 631 km) at cruise speed Mach 0.85. Entry Into Service is scheduled for 2016 (Global 7000) and 2017 (Global 8000). A comprehensive overview of business jets in service and in development is given in attachment 13.1. A Supersonic Business Jet flying at Mach 2 cruise speed could virtually halve the travelling time, which would enormously enhance the mobility and flexibility. In order to achieve this ambition a paradigm shift is required. New technologies must be established, the impact on the environment must be understood and minimised, existing regulations must be changed to permit overland flight restrictions and the product still needs to be economically viable. All of the above aspects must be considered and will be subject for discussion within this Master Thesis (See also figure 2). Discussions regarding the introduction of a Supersonic Business Jet (SSBJ) have been on-going for decades. However, until now no project has been officially launched to develop and build a SSBJ. This indicates that the required maturity of the market has not been reached. To understand the state of the business and barriers to entry, this document will first analyse and summarise the history of Supersonic Transport (SST). There are no successes without motivation. For that reason, all possible motives will be deliberated. The main part and backbone of this thesis will be a detailed discussion of all identified and involved aspects. The gained conclusions will serve as a basis to allow a comprehensive comparison between Subsonic and Supersonic Business Jets. This will be supported by a SWOT analysis and a risk assessment. The key points will be summarised to derive the most reasonable conclusions regarding the readiness of small SSBJs, highlight associated risks and provide recommendations. Further fields of studies and future visions round up this subject Master Thesis. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: IIAbbreviationsiv IIIFiguresv IVTablesviii 1.Introduction1 2.History of Supersonic Travelling3 3.Motivation6 3.1Mobility, Range and Travelling Time6 3.2Prestige7 3.3Efficient use of free Airspace at high Altitudes8 3.4Platform for new Technologies9 3.5To Generate Profit9 3.6Supersonic Cargo Transport10 3.7Supersonic Non-Civil Applications10 4.Technical Aspects11 4.1Basics of Supersonic Flights11 4.1.1Definitions for Mach Number and Speed of Sound11 4.1.2Subsonic, Transonic and Supersonic Speed12 4.1.3Sonic Boom12 4.1.4Supersonic Cruise Efficiency14 4.1.5Aircraft Range Considerations17 4.2Design and Manufacturer Organisations18 4.2.1Aerion Corporation18 4.2.2Dassault Aviation SA19 4.2.3Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (GAC)19 4.2.4Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)20 4.2.5Raytheon Aircraft Company20 4.2.6Sukhoi-Gulfstream21 4.2.7Supersonic Aerospace International (SAI)21 4.2.8Tupolev PSC22 4.3Research Projects22 4.3.1Environmentally High Speed Aircraft (HiSAC)22 4.3.2Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)23 4.3.3National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)23 4.3.4Supersonic Cruise Industry Alliance (SCIA)24 4.4Safety Considerations24 4.4.1Atmospheric radiation at high altitudes25 4.5Summary Specifications for Supersonic Business Jet Concepts26 5.Environmental Aspects29 5.1Aircraft noise29 5.1.1Engine noise29 5.1.2Aerodynamic noise30 5.1.3Noise from aircraft systems30 5.1.4Effects of aircraft noise30 5.2Exhaust Emissions31 5.3Fuel Consumption (non-renewable resource)32 6.Economic Aspects34 6.1Aviation Outlook34 6.1.1Business Aviation Outlook General35 6.1.2Business Aviation Outlook High-End Segment37 6.2Supersonic Business Jet - Market Analyse38 6.2.1Customer Groups for a small SSBJ38 6.2.2Approach I Estimation based on the Subsonic Business Jet High-End Market39 6.2.3Approach II Use and Correlation of Existing Market Studies conducted for SSBJ40 6.3Product Life Cycle42 6.4Acquisition (Programme) Costs44 6.4.1Research, Development, Test and Evaluation Costs (RDTE)44 6.4.2Procurement and Production Costs49 6.5Programme Cost Estimation based on RAND DAPCA IV model50 6.6Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis53 6.7Programme Financing55 6.8Ownership Costs56 6.8.1Direct Operational Costs (DOC)56 6.8.2Crew Cost56 6.8.3Fuel/Oil/Additives Cost56 6.8.4Maintenance Cost57 6.8.5Landing fees (Noise, Emissions)58 6.8.6Indirect Operational Costs (IOC)58 6.8.7Total Operational Costs (TOC)59 6.9Aircraft Utilisation60 6.10Disposal Costs60 6.11Marketing Strategy60 7.Politics and Regulations61 7.1Global - ICAO61 7.1.1ICAO Standards and Recommend Practices on Aircraft Noise63 7.1.2ICAO Standards and Recommend Practices on Emissions65 7.2United States FAA66 7.2.1FAR 91.817 Civil aircraft sonic boom66 7.2.2FAR 36 Noise Standards Aircraft Type and Airworthiness Certification67 7.2.3FAR 34 Fuel Venting and exhaust Emissions requirements68 7.2.4FAR 25.773/91.175 Cockpit View68 7.2.5FAR 25.841 Cabin Pressurisation69 7.2.6FAR ETOPS (Extended Range Twin-Engine Operations)69 7.3Europe EASA69 7.4Asia-Pacific, Africa, South-America69 7.5Airport Noise70 7.6Politics and Public Perception70 8.Concept Comparison Subsonic vs. Supersonic Business Jet72 8.1SWOT Analysis72 8.2Risk Assessment73 8.2.1Risk Identification and Description74 8.2.2Risk Estimation75 8.2.3Risk Evaluation76 8.3SSBJ Competitor Analysis79 8.4Aircraft Comfort80 9.Conclusion81 10.Outlook83 11.Executive Summary85 12.References88 13.Attachments94 13.1Subsonic Business Jet Models on the Market and in Development (58)94 13.2Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC) trends for various engine types (72)95 13.3SSBJ Programme Cost Estimation Calculator (Excel) based on DAPCA IV model96 13.4CAEP Working Paper CAEP/8-WP/35 Extract Notional Roadmap97 Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 6.7, Programme Financing: As explained, before first revenue will be generated significant investment is needed to overcome the RDTE and initial production phase. The required investment will be higher for a new SSBJ when compared to conventional subsonic business jets. In addition, the investment time will also be longer due to the prolonged RDTE time prior EIS. The identified investment has been previously established of 4 to 6 Billion USD for RDTE, 2 Billion USD for tooling and about 1 Billion for initial production ramp up. This gives a total volume of approximately 7 to 9 Billion USD. Considering a development time of 5 to 8 years, roughly 0.5 to 1 Billion USD funding per year is required. The proportion will be low beginning of the development phase with an increasing trend towards the end and with the maximum at EIS as shown in figure 33. Two principle ways of financing exist, they are known as Internal and External. Internal financing uses retained profit from other products within the company s portfolio, depreciation and the transfer of assets. External financing includes equity funding, loans and bonds (75). Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. In principle, external finance has a higher associated cost than internal financing. Methods to reduce the overall financing burden are risk sharing partners or government funding known as subsidies. In the end, the programme financing will be very complex combination of several options based on the individual SSBJ manufacturer company structure and economic strength. For reference, the Boeing Dreamliner 787 large transport aircraft programme was predominantly financed by production subsidies, interest free bonds and risk sharing partners. The Boeing self-financed proportion was 4.2 Billion out of the total 13.4 Billion only 31% (76). However, the large transport aircraft businesses are much more within public and strategic interest for a country than a small supersonic business jet would be. Existing business jet manufacturer organisations such as Gulfstream, Hawker Beechcraft or Dassault have an economical advantage in order to support the development of an expensive SSBJ. In fact, Gulfstream business aviation sub-segment contributed 860 Million USD of Operating Earnings to the total General Dynamic group Operating Earnings of nearly 4 Billion USD in 2010 (35). In contrast, Aerion or SAI are market newcomers with less financial backing and will therefore encounter more difficulties to finance their SSBJ programme. A potential solution for the funding problem would be joint ventures. Finally, any financing related cost such as interests must be included into the life cycle cost calculation. 6.8, Ownership Costs: There are many different cost elements involved in owning and operating a business aircraft. The cost can be differentiated into operational, maintenance and post design related (See also figure 35). A different approach is to split the cost in Direct Operating Costs (DOC) and Indirect Operating Costs (IOC). The Total Operating Costs (TOC) is defined as Direct Operating Costs plus Indirect Operating Costs, commonly expressed in USD/km, USD/hour or USD/passenger. The following subsections will elaborate on the main differences between the operation and maintenance of a subsonic and a supersonic business jet. A full operating cost analysis has not been carried out due to its complexity, which would exceed the scope of this subject thesis. An example for a comprehensive cost analysis conducted for small business aircraft can be found in reference (77). For that reason only a qualitative assessment has been carried out, which is deemed sufficient to give an overview. 6.8.1, Direct Operational Costs (DOC): The direct operational costs are typically proportional to hourly operation and aircraft cycles. The cost increases with flight operation. DOC comprises typically of following elements: crew, fuel/oil/additives, maintenance labour and parts, navigation, landing, parking fees and catering. Fractional ownership cost or leasing cost paid per hour operation may also be included. However, this is depending on exact DOC definition. 6.8.2, Crew Cost: The associated crew cost will be pretty much in line to conventional business jets. Nevertheless, there is potentially a slight increase due to special pilot licensing and training required for supersonic travelling at high altitudes, landing and take-off at high angle of attack. It is assumed that the crew cost will slightly increase by about 10%. The reduced travelling time will have a positive effect. Boeing_Current_Market_Outlook_2011_to_2030.pdf. ... http://www.flightglobal. com/channels/finance/articles/2010/10/11/348248/rough-but-ready- businessaircraft-census-2010. ... Gulfstream G650.

Title:Subsonic versus Supersonic Business Jets - Full Concept Comparison considering Technical, Environmental and Economic Aspects
Author:Michael Hans-Reichel - 2012-01-18


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